Will Trump win Utah by 42 points?
Utah will vote 69% for Donald Trump for the 2020 Presidential Election, up 23 points from the 2016 general election. The prediction is based on the voting patterns from 2012 primary and general, and 2016 caucus and general election, and the 2020 super Tuesday primary.
In the 2012 presidential primary, Mitt Romney won 93% of the Republican vote out of 262 thousand ballots. Romney was competing against Rick Santorum who had 1.5%, Ron Paul who had 4.8%, and New Gingrich who had half of one percent.
Coming off of the primary, in the 2012 Presidential General election, Romney’s state wide pull in Utah was 72.7% against Obama-Biden at 24.8%, of a million twenty eight thousand ballots cast. Romney-Ryan had 740,600 to Obama-Biden 251,813.
At the 2016 Utah Presidential caucus on March 22, CBS reported of 35 precincts, Cruz had 71 percent, Kasich had 16 percent and Trump received 14 percent, with 30,000 Republicans registered to vote online. Utah had 40 delegates to send to the 2016 national convention, at which Trump received the nomination.
At the 2016 presidential general election, Trump’s state wide pull in Utah was 45.5% from 515 thousand votes, against Clinton –Kaine at 27.5% from 310 thousand, votes and McMullin’s 21.5%.
Basically Clinton Kaine outpulled Obama-Biden by 59 thousand votes.
As there are more voters in 2020 from 2012, expect Trump to equal or out pull even the Romney-Ryan 2012 race. Prediction for Trump-Pence Utah vote of 793 thousand. Let’s see if we can get within 1 percent.
The only question is whether Trump-Pence can carry Washington county by a 4 to 1 over the opponent.
2020 Presidential Primary election
|County||Total Valid Ballots Cast||Robert Ardini||Matthew John Matern||Bob Ely||Joe Walsh||Bill Weld||Donald J. Trump|
March 23, 2016, CBS News. With 35 percent of precincts reporting, Cruz has 71 percent of the vote, while Kasich has 16 percent and Trump has 14 percent.
The Republican Party of Utah reported the largest collection of Republican caucus-goers ever, CBS News affiliate KUTV reported this evening (March 22). About 30,000 Republicans were registered to vote online.
|total||Gary Johnson,Bill Weld||Donald J. Trump,Michael R. Pence(REP)||Hillary RodhamClinton, TimothyMichael Kaine||Evan McMullin,Nathan Johnson(UNA)|
|COUNTY||Registered Voters||Total Ballots cast||% of votes||Rick Santorum||Mitt Romney||Fred Karger||Ron Paul||Newt Gingrich||Dan Liljenquist||Orrin G. Hatch|
2020 presidential informatio
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