For most of the modern primary cycles, the delegate math has been driven by momentum early on in the season. Typically, once the front-runner wins most of the key early primaries and comes out with more delegates and states on Super Tuesday, he becomes the presumptive nominee. The other candidates might hang in for another month and score a few wins, but they are usually fighting a losing battle similar to the confederate army in 1864. Primaries are driven by momentum and don’t work like football games where it is not uncommon for the losing team in the first half to come out of the locker room after halftime and win the game in the latter two quarters.
This primary season is different in every way imaginable. And it’s very likely that if Marco Rubio and John Kasich exit the race after March 15 — the halftime of this nomination process — Ted Cruz can beat out Donald Trump in the second half of the race and come away with more delegates, if not close to a majority.
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