Corona Virus COVID-19 deaths projected at 31.8 thousand in America for 2020. Testing consistent at 15% of symptomatic. Chinese Virus. Common Cold.
The Center for Disease Control is giving daily cumulative total number of COVID-19 cases in the United States by report date, from January 12, 2020 to March 29, 2020, at 4 pm ET (number = 140,904). Source
Thus 140,904 diagnosed cases have been reported by March 29th. On Monday, the 30th March 2020, President Trump announced that one million COVID-19 tests have been given. Patients tested either show cold symptoms, specifically fever and cough, or others who have been in contact with the infected.
Does the history of the common cold indicate anything? Yes. Let’s review how the history was developed. Pasteur discovered the virus rabies, about 1850, long before Pasteur could see the disease. Microscopes could only show bacteria, which are about one thousand times larger than a virus. The observation of virus waited until the 1960s. The first prototype electron microscope, capable of four-hundred-power magnification, was developed in 1931. ‘’ An electron microscope uses a beam of accelerated electrons for illumination. As the wavelength of an electron can be up to 100,000 times shorter than that of visible light photons, electron microscopes have a better resolving power and can reveal the structure of smaller objects. The first North American electron microscope was built in 1939. Source Wikipedia. Polio virus was isolated and eventually treatable in the 1950s.
Corona viruses were first discovered in the 1930s in animals, including chickens. Human Corona viruses were discovered in the 1960s. ‘’ The earliest corona viruses studied were from human patients with the common cold, which were later renamed human corona virus 229E and OC43. Other human corona virus have since been identified, including SARS-CoV in 2003, HCoV NL63 in 2004, HKU1 in 2005, MERS-CoV in 2012, and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019. Most of these have involved serious respiratory tract infections.’’ Source Wikipedia.
Upon isolation in the 1960s, tests surveyed patients with the ‘common cold’ to determine which virus caused the symptoms.
The tests categorized the corona virus as causing 15% of the common cold, a percentage which was reported into the 1980s. Rhinoviruses are the major cause of the common cold. ‘’The cold is the most common illness known, bringing the sneezing, scratchy throat and runny nose that we’re all familiar with. People in the United States have an estimated 1 billion colds each year. More than 200 different viruses are known to cause the symptoms of the common cold. An estimated 30-35% of all adult colds are caused by rhinoviruses.’’
‘’The average healthy adult has two to three colds per year. Cold viruses usually cause mild symptoms—such as sore throat, runny nose, and cough—and are quickly removed by the immune system. Human rhinovirus (HRV) is the main cause of the common cold, making up over half of the cases.’’ “When people have other disease factors, HRV infection can become a tipping point and lead to severe illness, disability, or even death,”
Let’s review the evidence supporting complementary and alternative medicine approaches to treatment and prevention of the common cold in adults. For prevention, vitamin C demonstrated benefit in a large meta-analysis, with possibly increased benefit in patients subjected to cold stress. Overall, the evidence suggests no benefit from probiotics for prevention or treatment of the common cold.
Viruses and Bacteria in the Etiology of the Common Cold
Two hundred young adults with common colds were studied during a 10-month period.
Rhinoviruses were detected in 105 patients, corona virus OC43 or 229E infection was detected in 17, influenza A or B virus was detected in 12, and single infections with parainfluenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, adenovirus, and enterovirus were found in 14 patients. Evidence for bacterial infection was found in seven patients. Four patients had a rise in antibodies against Chlamydia pneumoniae, one had a rise in antibodies against Haemophilus influenzae, one had a rise in antibodies against Streptococcus pneumoniae, and one had immunoglobulin M antibdies against Mycoplasma pneumoniae. The results show that although approximately 50% of episodes of the common cold were caused by rhinoviruses, the etiology can vary depending on the epidemiological situation with regard to circulating viruses. Bacterial infections were rare, supporting the concept that the common cold is almost exclusively a viral disease. Source
‘’ Large studies, such as the Tecumseh Study, the Seattle Virus Watch, and the New York Virus Watch, performed during the 1960s clarified the crucial role of viruses in acute respiratory illness (23). Rhinoviruses were shown to be major causative agents in mild upper respiratory illness (the common cold), although the percentage of rhinoviruses detected in disease episodes was approximately 25% in the early studies (17). Rhinoviruses have been recently estimated to cause 34% of all respiratory illnesses (23). With the exception of corona viruses, the proportion of other identified agents has been small, and in most studies the causative agent has not been identified in up to 50% of cases.’’ The mean age of the patients was 24.0 years.’’ At the first visit, a nasopharyngeal aspirate was collected with a disposable mucus extractor from all the patients. The patients returned on day 7, when a new nasopharyngeal aspirate was taken. The final visit was on day 21, when the second blood sample was taken.’’ Source
The American Billion colds a year and 212 thousand annual deaths must also take into account the 160 million flu shot dosages produced every year, with 25 million not used and which eventually will expire. Thus two thirds of Americans do not defend themselves with flu shots, every year, and therefore are at an increased risk of their share of the annual colds.
The World Health Organization has declared this a Pandemic.
What does all this mean? After a million tests of patients with cold symptoms, about 14% are testing positive for the corona virus, which statistic is exactly what studies going back to the 1960s showed. The other 85% are the other 200 viruses which have been identified with the Corona Virus, as causing the ‘common cold.’
Americans average a billion ‘colds’ a year, so a 15% average suggests that 150 million of these ‘colds’ are in the corona virus family. The Number of deaths from selected causes by age in the United States for 2015, showed all causes of death at 2,712,630. Source Table 6, page 33. Influenza and Pneumonia deaths totaled 57,062, and for age 75-84, deaths were 14,149. A separate category of Chronic lower respiratory disease showed a total of 155,041 deaths, and for ages 75-84, deaths were 49,834; Source. These diseases and numbers are compiled from death certificates as recorded by a coroner, and reported by each state and reported in the National Vital Statistics Reports volume 66_ number 6, November 27, 2017 Tabs 1-15 2017 75 pages.
The state reported death statistics do not break out which virus caused the 212 thousand respiratory deaths in 2015. The specific virus is virtually never recorded, nor tested. The cause of death is listed by the coroner on the death certificate. But assuming the likelihood of dying from one virus respiratory infection as another, expect 212 thousand deaths for 2020, from respiratory infection. Of these 212 thousand deaths, expect 15% or 31.8 thousand, will be a Corona Virus. The previous statistics have not yet broken out which Corona Virus was a contributing factor in each death. The media has currently reported that 99 percent of the respiratory deaths, among patients infected with COVID-19, involved patients with up to three pre existing conditions.
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In February, t he media reported that models of the Pandemic, estimated deaths from 100,000 to 2 million for the current pandemic. As noted above from the NIH, half of the viruses in the common cold are not even specified. Because the specific viruses are not specified, no vaccine had been previously developed. Annual deaths now exceed 200 thousand for the respiratory diseases, with a third to half of all deaths in the elderly. The only ‘model’ of having 200 thousand deaths is, if one hundred percent of the deaths were from the corona virus, but whenever the tests were made, the rate was 15%, not 100%. On a daily basis, the respiratory colds were listed as a cause on 580 death certificates in 2015. Segway to 2020, it means there have been 52 thousand deaths from respiratory colds in the first quarter of 2020, although they have not been publicly announced. The reports are usually collected and released at the end of the reporting year. US Deaths from the Chinese virus, beginning in January 2020, have been reported at 3,000 as of March 30, 2020. The previous rate of corona virus of colds at 15% multiplied times 52 thousand deaths is just under 8 thousand. Thus the Chinese virus is running about 3/8ths or 37% of its share of the corona virus family of diseases.
The diligence of the coroners to list all pre existing conditions on a death certificate, may vary with the coroner. The pre existing condition of each patient is the most significant variable in risk. Much like life insurance rating, which asks the insured do you smoke? use alcohol? have you ever smoked? Do you have diabetes, high blood pressure, hypertension, Kidney disease, liver disease, or cancer? Those are always the markers for risk if you get sick. If you have these, stay inside during flu season.
Moral. The published statistics on the Chinese virus are remarkably consistent with the surveys conducted decades ago, which are the best models to predict what is going forward. Models estimating millions of deaths from the Chinese Virus are making unknown assumptions. Perhaps guessing what the ‘spanish’ flu of 1918 and 1919 would be as a model. First of all, the 1919 Spanish flu, had no way to identify which virus or family of viruses were circulating. There were no vaccines. In the past century, many vaccines have been developed targeting specific viruses, such as H1N1, and hundreds of millions have been vacinated. These reduce the risk of multiple infections, overlapping diseases, which might overwhelm the immune system. Is it any comfort, that RhinoVirus will kill more people this year than the Chinese Virus? Not sure, but this is one perspective.
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