Part 113.  Table for Center for Disease Control and National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) about state rankings of mortality and life expectancy  which correlate with 2016 Presidential Election Blue versus Red States results. Red state residents die sooner, Blue state residents die later.  Are the metrics relating to deaths from COVID-19 or China Virus accurate?

UTopiAH. This is Part 113 of a series for comparing census based life expectancy and death rate tables, ranking states by how long Americans live, based on the census from 1960 to 2015. After the  2016 presidential elections, states were rearranged according to the election results, Blue states moved to the top  as having longest life expectancy, and Red States assigned to  the bottom of the list. 

            The National Center compiles deaths in America. As noted in the previous 3 dozen columns beginning in 2018, the death metrics closely  correlate to the results of the 2016 election and how each state voted its support.  The above table has the results color coded, Blue states, and Red states 

In April of 2020, controversy over handling of the economy and the CDC’s recommendations became news.  For instance, as Texas reopened it’s economy,  Dr. Fauci publicly criticized Texas. Thereupon the Texas Lieutenant Governor Patrick pushed back.  All was done with the background of daily reports from the CDC of cases and deaths for a single malady, with recommendations for quarantining the entire United States.

Inquiry was made to the CDC Director, Dr. Robert R. Redfield asking to clarify the correlation between voting and state ranking of death and life longevity.  Were any metrics to be believed? The inquiry went as follows, referring to the above table. 

Question to the CDC. Do you have any comment on these columns in the UtahStandardNews? Specifically, the 2017 report [National Center for Health Statistics] rearranged state rankings so that states voting blue in 2016 filled the top ten (best life expectancy), and states voting red filled the bottom ten (lowest life expectancy).  The question raised was whether the new model was based on created fake metrics, specifically designed to give the pre determined results.

The Associate Director for Science, National Center for Health Statistics replied  in part.

Mortality statistics are produced from death certificates reported by  state vital statistics offices to NCHS as part of the National Vital Statistics System, and information on deaths, death rates, and life expectancy has been published by NCHS since its inception in 1960.  The legal authority for the registration of births and deaths in the U.S. resides with the states, while NCHS is the federal agency legislatively mandated to produce statistics on births and deaths for the nation.

NCHS has not produced rankings of state life expectancy in any official report or publication, although we have provided estimates of state life expectancy for 2010-2015 through the U.S. Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (USALEEP). This project produced life expectancy estimates at birth for most of the census tracts in the United States for the period 2010-2015, and was a partnership between NCHS, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF), and the National Association for Public Health Statistics and Information Systems (NAPHSIS) (https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/usaleep/usaleep.html ).  These data are available to the public and may be used by others to create their own presentations including rankings.

Further question to the NCHS.

Appreciating your reply, you wrote  ”NCHS has not produced rankings of state life expectancy in any official report or publication”.  However Life Expectancy is mentioned a dozen times in this report –

            A Report dated Nov 27, 2017, Volume 66, Number 6, has the CDC NCHS NVSS on the cover page at the bottom. Table 12 p 49 et seq. lists ‘number of deaths, death rates, and age-adjusted death rates etc.’ by states and United States.   The table is referenced in the UtahStandardNews columns, and is referenced by several media columns ranking states by death rates.

             Is this report and table from NCHS? Or, from whom or where was this table compiled?

The National Center for Health Statistics replied  in part.

The report and table you reference were produced by NCHS.  The report is the annual 2015 Final Mortality Report.  The table is a standard table in the annual report and as you note provides state specific counts of deaths, death rates and age adjusted death rates but it does not show life expectancies.  In addition, the table does not rank states but shows states in alphabetical order.

Further question to the NCHS.

The reply states ‘death rates and age adjusted death rates but it does not show life expectancies’ in referring to the table in the 2017 report. Is there is any correlation between death rates and life expectancies? The reply might be interpreted as denying any such.

[As previously noted] MSNBC, 24/7Wall street, relied on the University of Washington, which relied on the report  to rank states based on the death rate and ‘age adjusted’ death rates. The query asked ‘Specifically, the 2017 report rearranged state rankings so that states voting blue in 2016 filled the top quintile (best life expectancy), and states voting red filled the bottom quintile (lowest life expectancy).  The question raised was whether the new model was based on created fake metrics, specifically designed to give the pre determined results.’ 

If there is no correlation, then the studies and reports by MSNBC, 24/7Wall Street, and UofW are false.

This does not really address the question about Blue states in the top quintile, and Red states in the bottom quintile.   

The 2017  report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics data on death rates assigned to  the 30  RED States, after the 2016 election,  age adjusted death rates which  collapse the relative positions of the states  down a total of  154 place rankings.   While  the BLUE states, after the same 2016  election, rose 155 places in death rate rankings, a swing difference of  over 300 places.  Red states moving up  totaled 4,  Blue states moving up totaled 13.  Two Red and two Blue states had  no change.    Red states moving down totaled 24,  Blue states moving down totaled 4. 

Utah  ranked 38^th highest in 2017, down in 2004 from 1st, net rankings down 12 places.

Wisconsin 37th highest in 2017, down in 2004 from  44^th of 50, net rankings down 7.

Iowa 35^th  highest in 2017 down in 2004 from  43^rd  of 50, net rankings down 8. ? Iowa was 45^th highest 1960, 41^st 1970, 46^th 1980,  43^rd 1990 meaning only 6 states had better life expectancy.

Nebraska ranked 49th in 1960, 44th in 1970 and in 1980, and 39th out of 50 in 1990. After 2017 it ranked 33^rd, down 6 more places. It’s previous biggest drop was 4 places.

New York.  After the 1960 census New York life expectancy ranked 22^nd,  in 1970 ranked 31^st,  in 1980 ranked 26^th, from 1990 to 2004, New York ranked 14th.  The 2017  report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics exploded  New York up   into the top quintile, ranking 45^th best of 50 states, moving up 32 places.  This was the best improvement of any state ever, just beating out California’s 30 place explosion between 2004 and 2017.

The rest of the states are listed in the attachment.  How is such a pattern possible?

The Associate Director for Science, National Center for Health Statistics replied  in part.

I did not mean to imply that death rates and life expectancy are not related.  Both measures are based on counts of deaths, but these measure are not the same and we would not necessarily expect a one-to-one correlation between the death rate and life expectancy.  Jurisdictional vital records office send death records to NCHS where they are compiled to create national data files which are made available for analysis by NCHS and non-NCHS researchers.  Reports by non-NCHS analysts will likely list NCHS as the source of the death data even when NCHS was not involved in producing the report.  The report of life expectancy rankings is not in an NCHS report and, as I mentioned,  the 2017 NCHS report you reference did not rank states by death rates nor did it provide state life expectancies.  I can assure you that there has been no change in how NCHS calculates death rates or age adjusted death rates in our reports – standard demographic methods are used.

I cannot comment on the attachment’s reports of state life expectancy as these are not NCHS statistical products.

Further question to the NCHS.

[The  CDC response is] ”The report of life expectancy rankings is not in an NCHS report and, as I mentioned,  the 2017 NCHS report you reference did not rank states by death rates nor did it provide state life expectancies. I cannot comment on the attachment’s reports of state life expectancy as these are not NCHS statistical products.’

SOurce – https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr66/nvsr66_06.pdf National Vital Statistics Reports  Volume 66, Number 6 Deaths: Final Data for 2015  by Sherry L. Murphy, B.S., Jiaquan Xu, M.D., Kenneth D. Kochanek, M.A., Sally C. Curtin, M.A., and Elizabeth Arias, Ph.D., Division of Vital Statistics  November 27, 2017 

Do you intend that those statements about life expectancy should not have been in the report?  Are the references to life expectancy unsupported comments in the 78 page  (or so) report?  The Life Expectancy rankings have been reported in the media.  Please advise if Director Redfield has reviewed any of this research.

            Recalling the initial inquiry, which was – 

Do you have any comment on this series of investigative reporting from the UtahStandardNews?  With dozens of agencies,  it is probable that you have no knowledge of a life expectancy report, nor even of this agency i.e. National Center for Health Statistics.  Specifically, the 2017 National Vital Statistics  Report rearranged state life rankings so that states voting Blue in 2016 filled the top ten (best life expectancy), and states voting Red filled the bottom ten (lowest life expectancy).  The question is whether the new statistical model is based on fake metrics, specifically designed to give those pre determined results. – Blue great, Red awful.

Did you know the Great State  of New York had a history of life expectancy, ranking in the middle ten (20-29) for decades, as recently as 2004?  After the 1960 census New York ranked 22^nd,  in 1970 ranked 31^st,  in 1980 ranked 26^th, after 1990 ranked 13^th lowest, with 37 states with better life expectancies,  and 12 with worse.

But sometime between 2009 and 2017,  a report from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics exploded  New York up   into the top ten, ranking 45^th best of 50 states. 

In every previous ranking from 1960 on, Florida ranked ahead of New York. 

While New York and California were exploding up 30 plus rankings, Florida went down two.  

After the 1960 census Florida ranked 14 places above New York,  after 1970 ranked 1 places above New York, after 1980 5  above New York, after 1990 until 2009 15 places ahead of New York), but after 2017,   Florida slid down to 30^th (15 place rankings below New York).

From the NVSR Report  the 30  RED States, after the 2016 election, had a collapse of  154 place rankings, while the BLUE states, after the same election, rose 155 places, a net swing of over 300  places.  More is available at this column in the UtahStandardNews.

New York’s  ranking  in 2017 moved to  5th best in the nation.  moving up 32 places as compared to  2004.  This upward jump of 32 places was the best improvement of any state ever of record, just beating out California’s 30 place explosion upward to 3rd best in the nation.

Reply from the NCHS. 

The report referenced does contain information on life expectancy at the national level; it does not, however, contain information on state life expectancies.  Your question was specifically about ranking of state life expectancies.  As I noted,  I cannot comment on the state life expectancies you refer to as they are not NCHS products.

Question to the  NCHS.

In 2017, NCHS recalculated all the death rates, placing 15 blue states in the best 20 states as having the lowest death rates. And the five states, with the lowest death rates, all voted BLUE in 2016, and included California, New York, two with  the largest population, when for the past 60 years California and New York were dozens of places down? 

Notice the 15 states with the worst death rates all happened to have voted RED in the 2016 election, all with death rates at or above 784.4 deaths, per 100,000 population for 2015)

There are 21 states with death rates at or below 722.3. deaths per 100,000. Low is best, high is bad. Of the 21 states, 15 voted BLUE in the 2016 election. 

After half a century the states voting BLUE shot to the top of the rankings, and states voting RED crashed to the bottom, a switch of 300 places in death rates.

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